GE2015 [Analytical Essay]: A Youth’s Election Prediction Results and Fears for the Future of Governance

 

MY PREDICTIONS

6 MEMBER GRC 

ANG MO KIO RP 40+%

Pasir Ris Punggol SDA 40+%

5 MEMBER GRC

Nee Soon WP Close to 50%

Tanjong Pagar SINGFIRST 40+%

Sembawang NSP close to 45%

Tampiness NSP slightly above 40%

Aljunied WP close to 60% (Opposition Win)

Bishan Toa Payoh SPP Close to 50%

Marine Parade WP slightly below 50%

Jurong SINGFIRST close to 40%

4 MEMBER GRC

East Coast WP 50+% (Opposition Win)

Choa Chu Kang PPP Above 40%

Holland-Bukit Timah SDP close to 60% (Opposition Win)

West Coast RP slightly above 40%

Jalan Besar WP Slightly above 50% (Opposition Win)

Marsling – Yew Tee SDP Slightly above 50% (Opposition Win)

SMC

Bukit Panjang SDP slightly above 50% (Opposition Win)

Bukit Batok  SDP Close to 50 %Win, PAP Above 40%, Samir Salim Neji less than 10%

Fengshan WP Slightly below 50%

Hong Kah North SPP Below 40%

Hougang WP More than 65% (Opposition Win)

Mountbatten  SPP slightly above 50% (Opposition Win)

MacPherson  PAP above 50+% win, WP slightly above 40%, NSP less than 10%

Punggol East WP Close to 60% (Opposition Win)

Pioneer NSP 40+%

Potong Pasir SPP slightly above 55% (Opposition Win)

Radin Mas RP 40+% Win Close to 40% PAP Tan Hui Hui 15+%

Sengkang West WP slightly above 50% (Opposition Win)

Yuhua SDP 50+% (Opposition Win)

MY FEARS

In my above analysis, 12 constituencies will have Opposition parties winning, with 28 opposition politicians making up the total number of 89 seats in parliament. This means PAP still makes up at least 50% of the seats and will form the government as such. It might be a watershed election this year or it might not? This is just a assumed guess based on comparison to 2011 GE results, news coverage, as well as the popularity and prominence of the candidates and their respective parties. Thus, the results may turn out totally different.

If it really ends up as a watershed election, I’m quite apprehensive because as much as I know there are loopholes in our current system, and change will be good after so many years of being governed by a one-party system, I do fear if there will be clashes in direction and ideas in parliament due to the different voices, which might hamper the government from being a united, efficient and effective system. Nonetheless, since my prediction is that PAP will still form the main government, the changes will not be that extreme.

Will inter-party differences drown out the important national issues? How do we strike a balance if the various parties have different ideologies? Also, are new changes worth risking the stability? If it brings about good change, that is wonderful but if the opposite occurs, the next 4 years might be one hell of a ride. Hence, I hope the election results will not show a drastic change, but a good balance of both new and old faces. A progressive change to me, is better than a sudden and hasty one that may lead to unchangeable consequences.

At the same time, the diverse views and alternative voices would definitely offer a positive change to the government in terms of viewing issues faced by the people from a different angle, and also speaking up more on left-wing issues e.g. which place an increase focus on the rights, needs, and well-being of the people, rather than just striving for economic growth.

What I hope is Singaporeans do not vote for a party that is just a second PAP. Because if it a second PAP, I might as well have PAP since they have more stability. Secondly, I hope people do not vote for an opposition that might not be competent, but do it for the sake of being anti-PAP or wanting change. Look at the long-term over the short-term. Thirdly, I do not believe in spoiling your votes just because you like neither parties in your constituency. It is an important responsibility that does not only determine your life, but also that of your neighbors and community living around you, as well as Singaporeans since the candidates will also speak up in parliament on national issues.

Thus, Singaporean adults who have the time and resources really should read up on the parties manifestos of their constituencies, attend their rallies, follow news regularly from both mainstream and non-mainstream sources, compare progress and changes of the competing parties and candidates from the past to now, and form your decision from an objective and long-term angle of who or which team you feel can do a better job at leading the needs of our people and country well.

What I can say for GE2020 is that if the oppositions really do well for the next 5 years, there is a chance PAP may fall below 50%, and the opposition parties may come together as a strategic move to form a coalition government, which will put PAP by the sidelines. However, if they do poorly for the next 5 years, chances are that PAP will go back to being the incumbents. If some opposition parties do well, their popularity will increase and they may end up slowly forming the main government.

Honestly, all parties were either once, or are presently opposition parties, even PAP. The next party to become the ruling party would be forgotten as a opposition party, and Singaporeans would start to hate on them again because of the fact that they are the ruling party, and pick on the loopholes which are ever present in every governing system, just like the anti-PAP people now. It is a continual cycle. It’s quite an irony. PAP was once a opposition party that the people love, but the trend is now changing. The next party to become the ruling government will also slowly go from being the party people love, to the party people start to question and pick on likewise.

To check out more of our posts on GE2015, click HERE

Written by: Cass

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Featured images credits:  Paris Chia Photography (website), @Instagram@Facebook

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